Autumn's Shifting Sands: India's Comprehensive Weather Forecast for October 4, 2025, as Monsoon Makes a Dramatic Exit

The October Transition and the Lingering Monsoon Pulse

As the calendar turns to October 4, 2025, India finds itself balanced precariously between the official conclusion of the southwest monsoon season and the burgeoning arrival of the post-monsoon transition. This period is historically marked by unpredictable weather patterns, often driven by residual moisture and the first incursions of cold-weather systems. For meteorological experts and citizens alike, this Saturday promises a complex tapestry of conditions: early snowfall in the high Himalayas, the threat of a coastal deep depression in the East, and a looming 'Yellow Alert' for unseasonal heavy rains over the North Indian plains just days away.

The overall narrative for October 4th is one of dynamic change, dictated by two major, competing forces: a powerful Deep Depression over the Bay of Bengal, poised to unleash torrential rains upon the eastern coast, and the activation of a fresh Western Disturbance (WD) set to impact the Northern and Northwestern regions. This synchronization of systems across the subcontinent ensures that while the monsoon may be in retreat, its influence is far from over, presenting significant challenges for travel, agriculture, and public safety across a vast geographical expanse, from the shores of Odisha to the peaks of Kashmir.

This detailed forecast examines the situation region-by-region, offering insight into the expected weather conditions, the underlying meteorological drivers, and the necessary advisories for the coming days.

I. The Storm on the Eastern Front: Focus on the Bay of Bengal Deep Depression

The most immediate and concerning weather threat centers around the Eastern coastline. A well-marked Low-Pressure Area in the Bay of Bengal has rapidly intensified into a Deep Depression, currently tracking west-northwestwards and gathering strength. This system is the focal point of all meteorological attention for October 4th and the subsequent 48 hours.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that the Deep Depression is highly likely to cross the coast between Gopalpur (Odisha) and Paradip (Odisha) late on October 3rd or early morning on October 4th, bringing with it a torrent of rainfall and gusty winds.

Coastal Crisis: Odisha and West Bengal

The twin states of Odisha and West Bengal are bearing the brunt of this system. For October 4th, heavy to very heavy rainfall (115.6 mm to 204.4 mm) is forecast for several districts of coastal Odisha and South Bengal. Districts such as North and South 24 Parganas, Bankura, Hooghly, Purba and Paschim Bardhaman, and Purulia in West Bengal are under high alert, with conditions expected to persist until the morning of October 6th.

The impact will be catastrophic in low-lying areas. Coastal districts are advised to prepare for flash flooding, inundation of farmlands, and significant disruption to road and rail traffic. Fishermen have been strictly advised not to venture into the sea, as wave heights are expected to become dangerously high. The capital of West Bengal, Kolkata, is expected to see maximum temperatures around 32°C but with a high minimum of 28°C and near-100% humidity, making the heavy rain feel particularly oppressive. Coastal winds accompanying the depression pose a major risk to fragile infrastructure and temporary dwellings.

Jharkhand and Bihar: The Inland Impact

As the Deep Depression moves inland, its remnants will continue to fuel significant weather across East India. Jharkhand and Bihar, while spared the catastrophic winds of the coast, are set to receive widespread moderate to heavy showers on October 4th, transitioning into the weekend.

The moisture drawn in by this system will keep temperatures relatively low and skies overcast. Ranchi, the capital of Jharkhand, is forecast for a particularly cool day, with a maximum temperature of just 26°C and a minimum of 23°C, significantly below the seasonal norm, reflecting the intensity of the cloud cover and continuous rainfall. Patna, Bihar's capital, will be slightly warmer at 30°C/27°C, but the persistent, drizzly rain will dominate the weather scenario, impacting agricultural harvesting activities and slowing down outdoor commerce. Localized flooding remains a risk, especially in the low-lying plains of Bihar bordering Nepal.

II. Northern India: The Return of the Western Disturbance and Post-Monsoon Showers

While the East battles the depression, Northern India is preparing for a meteorological reversal triggered by the passage of a new Western Disturbance (WD). These extratropical systems, originating over the Mediterranean Sea, are the primary harbingers of cold weather but often cause unseasonal post-monsoon rainfall in the plains and snowfall in the mountains during the transitional months.

Kashmir Valley's Early Embrace of Winter

The transition has already begun in the Himalayas. High-altitude regions of the Kashmir Valley witnessed the season's first spell of significant snowfall on October 3rd, marking a definitive end to the brief summer window. Famous ski resorts like Gulmarg (Afarwat Peak) and areas like Sinthan Top in Anantnag district received fresh powder.

The immediate forecast for October 4th includes scattered light rain in the plains of J&K and the continuation of snowfall in higher reaches. However, the IMD indicates that a more intense WD is expected to affect Jammu, Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh from Sunday (October 5th/6th) onwards, suggesting further drops in temperature and increased precipitation, signaling an earlier than usual start to the winter season in the mountains. This premature chill is likely to influence the weather across the entire North Indian plains.

The Capital's Calm Before the Storm: Delhi-NCR

For residents of the National Capital Region (NCR), October 4th offers a brief respite. After recent spells of rain, the day is forecast to be relatively clear, with maximum temperatures soaring to 35°C and a minimum dipping to a comfortable 25°C. Skies will remain partly cloudy, a lingering effect of the departing monsoon axis, but the likelihood of rain is minimal.

However, this calm is highly deceptive. The primary concern for Delhi-NCR is the system developing for the subsequent days. The IMD has issued a 'Yellow Alert' for a significant weather change commencing around October 6th. This alert warns of heavy rain, thunderstorms, and potential squalls due to the combined influence of the Western Disturbance and the moisture being drawn northward by the Bay of Bengal system. This late-season burst of monsoon-like rain is anticipated to cause waterlogging and traffic chaos, making the seemingly pleasant Saturday merely the quiet prelude to a wet week ahead.

Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan’s Late Wet Spell

The influence of the WD extends strongly over the Northwestern states.

Rajasthan, a region known for its arid climate, is currently experiencing an uncharacteristic late wet spell, expected to continue until October 6th. While October 4th will see light to moderate rain across regions like Jaipur (30°C/25°C), Dausa, and Ganganagar, the heavy alerts are reserved for the weekend. Specifically, the divisions of Bikaner and Jodhpur are under alert for heavy rain and strong winds on October 5th and 6th, driven by the WD’s interaction with moisture. This excessive late rain can be detrimental to the Kharif harvest (like millet and cotton) that is ready for collection.

Uttar Pradesh (UP), especially the western parts, will also feel the WD’s peripheral effects. Lucknow is set for a pleasant day, with temperatures hovering around 31°C/25°C. The state will experience partly cloudy skies and a chance of light to moderate showers and high winds, with the intensity rising significantly on October 6th as the low-pressure system moves closer to the foothills of the Himalayas. Farmers are advised to secure their harvested crops against the strong winds and downpours expected in the coming days.

III. Central India and the Monsoon’s Slow Retreat

In the heartland, the weather scenario is one of gradual transition and consolidation of the monsoon withdrawal line. Madhya Pradesh (MP) typically marks the geographical core of the monsoon retreat during early October.

For October 4th, the state capital Bhopal is forecast to have a comfortable maximum temperature of 30°C and a minimum of 25°C. The region is largely expected to see dry weather, partly cloudy skies, and increasing daytime humidity as the Deep Depression pulls moisture eastward. The overall moisture content in the air mass is decreasing, signaling the slow shift towards the drier continental air. This dry spell is crucial for the standing Kharif crops to mature and dry sufficiently before harvest. The weather here is a testament to the official retreat of the monsoon, contrasted sharply with the active weather systems gripping the East and North.

IV. The Meteorology Behind the Calendar Date: Why October 4 is Pivotal

The complex weather conditions across India on October 4, 2025, are a prime example of atmospheric dynamics during a transitional period. Understanding the interplay of the primary weather systems is key to appreciating the forecast.

The primary meteorological mechanism is the bipolar influence of the Bay of Bengal and the Western Disturbance.

1. The Bay of Bengal Deep Depression (Tropical System): This low-pressure system is fueled by warm sea surface temperatures and high atmospheric moisture. It is a powerful engine drawing vast amounts of moisture northward and westward. Its trajectory into Odisha/Andhra Pradesh is responsible for the torrential rains in East India, and importantly, its rotational motion is key to dragging moisture into the Central and, indirectly, the Northern parts of the country. This system dictates the humidity and rainfall over Jharkhand, Bihar, and West Bengal.
2. The Western Disturbance (Extratropical System): Originating outside the tropics, the WD is a low-pressure area that travels west-to-east across Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, eventually hitting the Indian subcontinent. The WD active on October 4th is providing the necessary lift and frontal activity to destabilize the atmosphere over Rajasthan and the Western Himalayas, causing unseasonal rains and the early snowfall in Kashmir.
3. The Convergence Zone: The severe weather forecast for Delhi-NCR and Western UP on October 6th and 7th is a result of the convergence of these two major systems. As the WD moves eastward, it will interact with the moisture-laden winds pulled northward by the Deep Depression’s residual influence. This creates a highly volatile convergence zone over the Indo-Gangetic plains, leading to the intense thunderstorms and heavy rainfall warned by the 'Yellow Alert'. This specific convergence point is what makes the weather system so unpredictable and potent for the capital region.
4. The Anti-Cyclone: Counterbalancing these systems is the developing anti-cyclone over the Arabian Sea, which pushes drier, subsiding air over parts of Central and Western India, facilitating the official retreat of the monsoon. The battle between the easterly moisture flow from the Bay and the dry westerly flow from the anti-cyclone determines the exact location of the monsoon withdrawal line.

This intricate dance between tropical moisture, extratropical winds, and anti-cyclonic subsidence is why October 4th presents such wildly varying forecasts, from snowfall in the mountains to severe depression on the coast.

V. Impact and Public Advisory: Preparedness Across the Nation

The varied weather necessitates different levels of preparedness across India:

For Coastal Residents (Odisha, West Bengal):

Safety First: Residents in low-lying areas must adhere strictly to local government evacuation advisories.

Infrastructure: Prepare for power outages and communication disruptions due to strong winds and flooding.

Maritime: All fishing activities are suspended. Boats must be secured.

For Farmers (Rajasthan, UP, Bihar):

Harvesting: Farmers with ready-to-harvest Kharif crops (especially millets, pulses) in Rajasthan and Western UP must try to secure or transport them to safe storage immediately, ahead of the heavy rain alerts for October 5th and 6th. The unexpected late rains pose a major risk of crop loss.

Sowing: Delay the sowing of Rabi crops until the soil has dried sufficiently after the passage of the systems.

For Urban Dwellers (Delhi-NCR, Kolkata):

• Travel: While October 4th is clear in Delhi, be prepared for severe waterlogging and traffic snarls starting October 6th. Avoid non-essential travel during peak rain hours.
• Temperatures: Be aware of the high maximum temperatures forecast for Delhi (35°C), indicating that while the nights are comfortable, the daytime heat remains intense between showers.

Conclusion: A Look Ahead to Next Week

October 4, 2025, serves as a critical junction in India’s weather cycle. It is a day defined by the immediate threats of the Deep Depression over the eastern coast and the underlying atmospheric shifts brought on by the Western Disturbance in the North.

The nation must remain vigilant, particularly over the weekend. The warnings are clear: the East coast faces a short-term crisis from the tropical storm, while the North Indian plains, including the often-overlooked Delhi-NCR, must prepare for a significant, unseasonal, and disruptive downpour starting Sunday.

The early snowfall in Kashmir offers the first tangible evidence of the impending winter chill, a signal that the atmospheric dynamics are rapidly shifting. While the official monsoon is fading, its remnants, amplified by new weather systems, ensure that the first week of October will be anything but stable. The unpredictable nature of these transitional systems underscores the importance of staying tuned to official IMD updates, as the track and intensity of these weather phenomena can change rapidly, significantly altering life and commerce across the Indian subcontinent. Preparedness today is the only guarantee for safety tomorrow.