OPEC+ boosts oil output in a big way to grab back market share

On Sunday, August 3, 2025, the world's biggest oil producers, known as OPEC+, made a significant decision. They agreed to a large increase in oil production for September, a move that shows they're serious about taking back their share of the global market. This decision marks the latest step in a major shift from their old strategy of cutting production to keep prices high.

REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah

What’s Happening and Why it Matters

The group, which includes the 12 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies like Russia, agreed to boost output by a substantial 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September. This is a big deal because it’s the sixth month in a row that they've raised production, and it's a key part of their plan to gradually reverse the deep cuts they made during and after the pandemic.

For a long time, OPEC+ had a clear goal: to support oil prices by limiting how much oil they produced. But things have changed. With the global economy looking healthier and demand for oil on the rise, the group sees an opportunity. They want to reclaim the market share they lost to other producers, like those in the United States. This new strategy is a balancing act. They want to pump more oil without causing prices to crash, and so far, it seems to be working.

A New Chapter for OPEC+

This latest production hike is the final piece of the puzzle in unwinding a 2.2 million bpd cut that eight of the group's members had put in place back in 2023. This is a major milestone and a clear signal that the group is confident in the market's ability to absorb the extra supply.

The decision was made during a virtual meeting and comes at a time of continued market volatility. Oil prices, particularly the international benchmark Brent crude, have remained steady, trading around $70 a barrel. This relative stability gives OPEC+ the confidence to push forward with its plan. As one analyst, Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects, noted, the strong prices suggest that the market’s fundamentals are healthy.

The Bigger Picture: Politics and the Market

The world of oil isn’t just about supply and demand; it’s also deeply tied to politics. This latest move by OPEC+ is no exception. The decision comes amid increasing pressure from the U.S. on countries like India to stop buying Russian oil. The U.S. is trying to use economic pressure to push Russia toward a peace deal in Ukraine.

This political backdrop adds another layer of complexity to the oil market. While OPEC+ is focused on its own goals of regaining market share, it also has to navigate these geopolitical tensions. The fact that India, a major buyer of Russian oil, has been resisting U.S. pressure adds to the uncertainty. Analysts believe that OPEC+ will continue to be cautious and will only make changes to their policy in response to real disruptions in supply, not just to price changes caused by political tensions.

What’s Next for the Oil Market?

With the latest hike, OPEC+ has successfully reversed its largest production cut without causing a major price drop. But the challenge isn’t over. The group still has other layers of cuts in place, totaling about 1.65 million bpd from eight members and a wider 2 million bpd cut across all members. These cuts are set to expire at the end of 2026.

The next big question is what happens after September. Some analysts, like Warren Patterson of ING, believe the group might pause further increases, citing a potential oversupply risk starting in October. If the market becomes flooded with too much oil, prices could fall sharply, which would hurt the finances of oil-producing nations. For now, the group is focused on its meeting on September 7, where they will decide on output levels for the month after that.

For consumers, the increased production could be good news, potentially leading to lower prices at the pump. For oil-producing countries, however, it’s a high-wire act. They need to find the right balance between pumping enough oil to keep their market share and not pumping so much that they tank the price. This balancing act will likely be a key theme for the global oil market in the months and years to come.