You could really feel the shift when U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth spoke. Even as he was warning everyone about China being an "imminent" threat, he made it super clear that he wanted European countries to put their military spending and efforts into their own backyard.
He basically said, "Look, we'd really prefer if most of Europe's money for defense stayed right there on your continent. That way, when we partner up, and we will keep partnering, we can use our strengths as an Indo-Pacific nation to help out our friends over here."
It was also pretty noticeable that his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, wasn't there. Instead, China sent a smaller group of military academics. It definitely made you wonder what was going on, especially at an event that usually brings together the biggest names in defense, diplomacy, and even a few spies and arms dealers!
India and Pakistan: A Tense Presence
Another big thing that caught everyone's attention was the presence of high-level military teams from India and Pakistan. This was just a few weeks after they had some pretty intense clashes that finally stopped with a ceasefire on May 10th.
Seeing their delegations, all in full uniform and decked out with medals, led by their top military brass, was quite something. And you could tell they were deliberately keeping their distance from each other in the hotel hallways. It really highlighted the ongoing regional complexities, even if the focus was on the U.S.-Europe dynamic.
Europe's Stance: We're Not Going Anywhere
But here's where it got interesting. It seems like at least some European nations weren't entirely on board with Hegseth's suggestion to pull back from Asia. They were pretty firm that they wanted to stay involved in both Asia and Europe. They pointed out their long-standing connections, the vital trade that flows between the regions, and how interconnected global conflicts are.
Kaja Kallas, Europe's top diplomat, really hammered this home. She said, "It's great that we're doing more (in Europe), but I really want to emphasize that the security of Europe and the security of the Pacific are very much linked." She even added, "If you're worried about China, you should be worried about Russia," highlighting how much China is helping Russia's war effort in Ukraine and Russia using North Korean soldiers. It makes you think about how truly global security issues have become.
France's Independent Path
French President Emmanuel Macron was another one who made his country's intentions clear. He insisted that France is, and will remain, an Indo-Pacific power. He reminded everyone about France's territories like New Caledonia and French Polynesia, and the fact that they have over 8,000 soldiers based across the region.
Macron pretty much said, "We're not China, and we're not the U.S. We don't want to rely on either of them." He talked about a "third path," a kind of partnership between Europe and Asia that avoids having to pick sides between Beijing and Washington. He believes that many countries in the region share this view – wanting to work with both for growth, prosperity, and stability.
Deeper Roots: Beyond the Speeches
What's really fascinating is that, beyond all the public statements, military experts and analysts in the region believe that Europe's presence and ambitions in Asia aren't just going to disappear overnight. Military plans are often made for decades, not just a few months, and many of these commercial and defense ties go way back, even if they're not always talked about openly.
Think about it: A British aircraft carrier is set to visit Singapore later this month. That's part of a plan that was first mentioned by then-Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson back in 2017, all to show support for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. And it's also connected to the 54-year-old Five-Power Defence Arrangement, which links Britain's military with Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, and New Zealand.
Britain's connections with Australia have also gotten stronger with the AUKUS agreement, a three-way deal with the U.S. for submarines and advanced technology sharing. This could even mean British submarines visiting Western Australia!
And it's not just big ships. Singapore has 200 people in France who operate 12 of its light combat aircraft. Britain also has a jungle training camp and helicopters in Brunei, plus a 1,200-strong Gurkha battalion there. These aren't small, one-off things; they show deep, established connections.
A recent report even highlighted how European defense companies have long-standing and growing ties to Asia, even with more competition coming in, especially from places like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as their defense budgets grow. Companies like Airbus, Damen, Naval Group, and Thales have been in Southeast Asia for ages, and others like Italy's Fincantieri and Sweden's Saab have also moved in more recently. Saab, for example, is close to a deal with Thailand for its Gripen fighters, even beating out Lockheed Martin's F-16s!
It makes sense when you look at the numbers. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported that defense spending in Asia jumped by 46% in the last decade, reaching a whopping $629 billion by 2024. That's a lot of investment and a lot of potential partnerships.
Finland's Perspective: Russia First
Of course, not everyone sees it the same way. For officials from Finland, Hegseth's words made a lot of sense. For them, Russia is the big concern, not the Indo-Pacific, especially with their long border with Russia.
Finnish Defence Minister Antti Hakkanen put it simply: "When Europe's defence is in a good shape, then you will have resources to do something more." He believes that right now, all European countries need to focus mainly on European defense so that the U.S. can take on a bigger role in the Indo-Pacific.
So, while the U.S. might be hoping Europe steps back from Asia, it seems like many European nations aren't quite ready to do that. The Shangri-La Dialogue this year really showed us that security is more complex than ever, with new alliances and priorities emerging on the global stage. It'll be interesting to see how these faultlines develop in the years to come.